Prof. Carlyle A. Thayer
Emeritus Professor at The University of New South Wales
and at the Australian Defence Force Academy
http://hass.unsw.adfa.edu.au/staff/profiles/thayer.html
1. A Chinese patrol boat deliberately cut a Vietnamese oil and gas survey ship’scables in Vietnamese waters. What’s your comment about this incident?
ANSWER: This is an unprecedented action by Chinese patrol ships. It appears to bethe first act of this nature against a Vietnamese state oil exploration vessel and the deliberate cutting of the cables is a serious escalation in Chinese assertiveness. A second aspect is more troubling, this time China has intruded into Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) claiming that its territorial sovereignty is marked by the 9 dotted line u‐shaped map. This map has no basis in international law. China’s action are a serious infringement of Vietnam’s sovereignty.
2. This is the first time China harassed a Vietnamese oil and gas survey ship. Why do you think they did that?
ANSWER: Since the last quarter of 2010 China has altered its strategy on the East Sea. China is now taking determined steps to assert its sovereignty by undertaking acts to reinforce its claims to jurisdiction over the area and to “managing” the East Sea. China is trying to demonstrate a legal basis for its actions. China’s energy needs are rising and it needs new secure sources of oil and gas. China continually provides estimates of oil and gas reserves that are well above what western oil companies believe is there. China claims that other countries are in effect stealing Chinese resources. Therefore China is now targeting exploration vessels by claimant states, including Vietnam and in March the Philippines.
3. Several Vietnamese academics think China wants to test Vietnam? What do you think?
ANSWER: There are multiple purposes behind Chinese actions:
First, China hopes to intimidate Vietnam by curtailing its exploration activities. China would then exploit Vietnam’s weakness by granting oil concessions to its companies.
Second, China seeks to demonstrate it has effective jurisdiction over the South China Sea. China defends its position as if international law is on its side.
Third, China also hopes by taking such an assertive stand it can divide ASEAN members. China hopes that by acting in such as aggressive manner it will convince some ASEAN members that it is best to make concessions and not confront China. China also hopes that by applying pressure it can create the impression among some ASEAN members that it is “Vietnam’s problem” and these states will pressure Vietnam to back down.
4. What should Vietnam do in the face of China’s aggression?
ANSWER: First, Vietnam must continually lodged diplomatic protests with the Chinese government. This will not alter China’s behavior but it is a necessary counter to Chinese actions. If Vietnam does nothing under international law it will be taken that it has acquiesced.
Second, Vietnam must raise this issue at all appropriate levels with the Chinese government, including joint working groups on maritime issues and at head of state/head of party level.
Third, Vietnam must conduct a public and private information strategy to keep regional states and other friendly countries fully informed of what has taken place. Priority must be given to winning the support of all ASEAN members.
Fourth, Vietnam must work out a plan to conduct surveillance and monitoring of its EEZ and improve communications between exploration ships at sea and command authorities on shore. In order to avoid escalating the conflict,Vietnam should develop a civilian or quasi‐military force with responsibility to enforce sovereignty in the EEZ. Vietnam should inform China that its exploration vessels will be escorted. When an incident occurs – or is likely to occur – Vietnam should scramble aircraft to patrol the area. All incidents should be recorded and given wide publicity.
5. Could you provide an assessment of the recent tensions between China and Vietnamin the South China Sea regarding survey missions by the Vietnamese? Who’s in the wrong and who’s in the right? Does China have the right to threaten force against these types of vessels?
ANSWER: China is now pursuing a policy of aggressively asserting its sovereignty overthe South China Sea by specifically targeting oil exploration vessels in maritime areas it claims. In March, Chinese patrol boats warned away a Philippine exploration vessel in a contested area and in May, China accosted a Vietnamese state exploration vessel. Chinese official statements on both incidents continually stress “Chinese jurisdiction” and “Chinese management” of the South China Sea. Both incidents occurred within the Exclusive Economic Zones claimed by the Philippines and Vietnam.
China’s claims to “indisputable sovereignty” over the South China Sea has no basis ininternational law, especially the UN Convention on Law of the Sea. China’s adoption of national legislation to restrict activities in the South China Sea likewise has no basis in international law.
Also, China’s nine dash mark u‐shaped map has no standing in international law. At best a nation can claim a 200 nautical mile EEZ from an island as defined in international law a body of land surrounded by water than can sustain human habitation and has an economic function. China, in fact, claims that the rocks that it occupies are islands. None of its rocks can sustain human habitation.
In May 2009, in contrast, Malaysia and Vietnam lodged claims for extended continental shelves by retreating from former claims based on a “regime of islands” to a “regime of rocks” thus shrinking the maritime area they claimed. China has not followed suit. China refuses to explain the basis of its extraordinary claim to overeighty percent of the maritime area of the South China Sea.
Vietnam has a coast line and has determined its base lines in accordance withinternational law. It therefore has a well‐founded legal basis to claim a 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone. This gives Vietnam sovereignty over the resourcesthat lie in this EEZ. Vietnam has the right to explore and to award oil and gasproduction contracts to exploit these resources.
Under customary international law Chinese patrol boats may transit throughVietnam’s EEZ. They are expected to observe safety procedures when sailing pastother vessels at sea. In this incident Vietnam’s exploration vessel was usingexploration gear towed 30 metres below sea level. Vietnam claims that this ensured that vessels could pass over in safety. Vietnam further claims that Chinese actions were premeditated in that the Chinese patrol vessels carried special equipment tocut these cables.
In 2002, China and all ten members of ASEAN signed the Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. While this document has no legal basis, its spirit and norms enjoin China from acting in an aggressive and violent manner. Chinese actions in cutting the cables of the Vietnamese state exploration vessel violate this spirit. Chinese recent assurances to Philippine officials that territorial disputes will besettled peacefully have lost come of the credibility with this latest incident involvingVietnam.
6. Could you please provide an assessment of the recent Vietnam‐China spat? Do you think the dispute will escalate into real war? Any coincidence with the opening ofShangri‐La dialogue in Singapore?
ANSWER: China has raised the stakes in asserting its sovereignty claims over the South China Sea by directing its patrol boats to accost oil exploration ships operating in contested waters. On March 2, Chinese patrols boats ordered a Filipino ship to leave “Chinese waters” in the Reed Bank area. On May 26, Chinese patrol boats ordered a Vietnamese exploration vessel to leave the area it was operating in.
The incident with Vietnam represents a serious provocation as the Chinese patrolboats deliberately cut a submerged cable being towed by the Vietnamese vessel. This incident is all the more serious because the Vietnamese vessel was operatingwell within Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone. China claims it has jurisdiction overthis area on the basis on an ill‐defined map of nine dotted lines that form a u‐shapein the heart of the South China Sea. In other words China is claiming waters inVietnam’s EEZ to the west of this line.
The timing of this incident comes just before the informal annual Shangri‐la Dialogue of defence ministers in Singapore. This may have prompted Vietnam to publicize the May 26 incident. No doubt the South China Sea will feature in discussions, particularly as China’s defence minister is attending for the first time. US Secretary ofDefense Robert Gates will be under some pressure to clarify US commitments totreaty ally the Philippines.
The two recent incidents do not herald the on set of conflict but if China continues to aggressively press its claims tensions will rise. Vietnam may respond by sending naval escorts to protect its state‐owned exploration vessels. This will raise the stakes even higher.
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